China has historically relied on coal to power its rapid industrial growth but has now embarked on a remarkable energy transition to renewables, unprecedented in speed and scale. By 2023, China’s total electricity generation capacity reached nearly 3 terawatts (TW), with over 50% of that coming from non-fossil fuel sources like solar, wind, and nuclear. In 2024 alone, China’s solar power generation increased by an incredible 78%, and wind generation continues to grow. If this trajectory continues, solar energy alone could surpass coal as the main source of electricity by 2026 – a timeline unimaginable just a few years ago. The size of the task is immense – China's economy is still growing, and its energy demand is projected to continue rising – but so is the potential. If successful, China's shift to renewables will not only redefine its energy landscape but will also play a decisive role in determining the global trajectory for managing climate change.
The role of coal in China: Coal has historically been the backbone of China's industrial growth, but it now accounts for roughly 70% of the nation's emissions.
Progress in pollution reduction: China has made significant strides in reducing air pollution, particularly in major cities like Beijing. This effort has laid the groundwork for China’s low-carbon energy transition.
Energy transition challenges: While China has expanded its renewable energy capacity, coal remains a major source of electricity. The report highlights that technical issues, such as energy storage and transmission, must be resolved to enable a complete shift to renewable energy.
Global collaboration: The report stresses the importance of international cooperation in solving technological challenges like of energy intermittency. Without such collaboration, China's transition could be delayed.
Economic evolution: Despite China's progress in shifting away from coal, economic factors have slowed the phase-out. The construction of new coal power plants continues, driven by local economic incentives, though such investments are increasingly economically unsustainable.
Future projections: Based on scenarios modelled in the report, China's carbon emissions could peak as early as 2024 or as late as 2035, depending on electricity demand and policy interventions. Global collaboration could support a pathway where coal rapidly peaks, followed by rapid emissions reductions.
