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China’s significant progress in transitioning away from coal has put the country on the cusp of a historic energy shift, but a new report from the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) warns that China’s pathway to peak emissions and carbon neutrality faces risks without greater international support and cooperation.
China’s “electrify everything” strategy has started to decouple economic growth from coal consumption – achieving longer life expectancy and the largest pollution reduction effort ever seen globally. However, new modelling data in CCAG’s report, The Long Goodbye, China’s transition away from coal, reveals that this transformation remains precarious.
Modelling suggests international cooperation key to China’s clean energy pathway
Using new data and projection modelling from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou (HKUST GZ), the report examines five future scenarios, each outlining a different trajectory for China’s energy transition under varying constraints.
A worst-case scenario modelled in the report assumes high electricity demand, with energy consumption exceeding the China Electricity Council’s (CEC) forecasts - reaching 12 TWh annually by 2030. In this scenario, peak emissions are not achieved until post-2035.
However, an “international cooperation” scenario showcases a future where strong partnerships accelerate China’s shift. In this model, annual electricity demand is still increasing by 5.69%, however, international collaboration to tackle intermittency issues in China show that peak carbon emissions can still be achieved by 2030.
According to the report, China could hit peak emissions earlier than anticipated, provided global technology sharing and collaboration take place to overcome these challenges.
Barriers to renewables progress
Despite China’s progress in reducing coal’s role in electricity generation, coal-fired power still accounts for 60% of China’s total electricity production and newly built coal power plants risk undermining progress.
Similarly, while China is leading the world in renewable energy deployment - with solar and wind energy outpacing coal in capacity - the challenge of renewable intermittency* is holding back progress. To move beyond coal, China requires technological solutions for energy storage and long-distance power transmission - areas where international cooperation will be crucial.
Professor Qi Ye, member of CCAG and Professor of Public Policy at HKUST GZ, commented: “China's experience shows that prioritising clean air and investing in renewables can yield health benefits and long-term environmental sustainability without sacrificing economic growth. But we should not overlook an important lesson: no country can do it alone. As we seem to be entering an alarming new phase of accelerating temperatures, international collaboration will be essential to accelerate the global energy transition and hold the line against climate change.”
International collaboration for global success
CCAG calls for countries worldwide to increase collaboration with China to develop and deploy technological solutions that can smooth and accelerate the energy transition. Without these interventions, China may struggle to meet its climate targets, with severe implications for the global climate.
Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Sir David King, commented: “Around the world we are witnessing catastrophic climate events at an accelerating pace, the situation is worse than many of us feared. But against stark reality, opportunities remain. China stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. With bold ambition and action, China has the chance to lead the world into a future defined by clean energy and climate resilience.
"This report shows that China can set the global standard for the energy transition we so desperately need, but it is clear that this cannot happen in isolation. International collaboration and technological innovation are critical if we are to overcome the challenges ahead. Now is the time for China to seize the mantle of leadership, not just for its own future but for the future of our planet.”
Taking its own step toward international collaboration, CCAG and HKUST(GZ) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), with the aim of enhancing global cooperation to address the climate crisis.
The partnership will support the development of actionable strategies for China’s energy transition, producing research reports that detail the most up-to-date progress, challenges, and opportunities for China’s transition. It will also facilitate knowledge exchange through organised visits and delegation exchanges from across CCAG’s global expert network.
Read The Long Goodbye: China’s transition away from coal here.
